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The American League East may not be the juggernaut it once was, but it’s no cakewalk, either. All five teams fashion themselves as contenders, and even the projected last-place team, the Boston Red Sox, is expected to have at least a .500 record. The Baltimore Orioles are on the way up with top prospects debuting all over the diamond, the New York Yankees just acquired Juan Soto, and the Tampa Bay Rays continue to churn out arms. It wasn’t so long ago that the Toronto Blue Jays were a trendy World Series pick, as well. The AL East is unlike any other division in that there are simply no bad teams, no genuine weak spots, no place for contenders to fatten up.
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The Athleticis publishing itsMLBdivision previews as part of the leadup to Opening Day. TheNL Westled off last week ahead of the Dodgers-Padres Korea Series, followed by theAL Weston Monday. On Tuesday, we tackled theAL CentralandNL Central. On Wednesday, we have the AL East and the NL East.
To break down the division, we’ve leaned on our team of experts. In addition to analysis from our team of writers, we’ve also tapped our expertise from the fantasy realm. Austin Mock provided expected win totals and various postseason odds for each team. Jake Ciely added his projections for the top hitters and pitchers. Our resident ex-general manager, Jim Bowden, handed out preseason grades for every team’s lineup, rotation, bullpen, defense and organizational depth. Then he topped it off with an overall grade.
The teams are ranked by their odds of winning the division.
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New York Yankees
89
Expected wins
Analysis
Who knows with the Yankees. The Athletic's projection model likes their chances to rebound from last year's disastrous fourth-place finish in the American League East, but there are also many, many ways things could go wrong for them. Here's what we do know for certain: They won't have ace Gerrit Cole — the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner — for perhaps two months as he rebounds from an elbow injury. They also won't have their starting third baseman (DJ LeMahieu) and several key relievers (Tommy Kahnle, Scott Effross). Could the addition of Juan Soto change the Yankees' fortunes? He's one of the best young lefty hitters ever, and he could help form a best-in-the-game duo by hitting in front of Aaron Judge. Still, the Yankees need several key veterans to prove that their terrible 2023 seasons were flukes and not who they really are. We're looking at you, Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. — Brendan Kuty
Jake Ciely's projections
TOP HITTERS
AVG
HR
RBI
OF Aaron Judge
.275
42
106
OF Juan Soto
.279
37
101
2B Gleyber Torres
.270
24
80
TOP PITCHERS
IP
K
ERA
SP Gerrit Cole
165
181
3.73
SP Carlos Rodon
155
179
3.97
RP Clay Holmes
62
65
3.44
Photo:
Manager Aaron Boone, 7th season (Getty Images)
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
74.3%
🏅 Win division
38.4%
🚩 Win pennant
15.6%
🏆 Win World Series
7.6%
Manager Aaron Boone, 7th season (Getty Images)
Jim Bowden's report card
Lineup
A-
Rotation
B
Bullpen
B
Defense
B
Depth
B
Overall
B
Baltimore Orioles
86
Expected wins
Analysis
After five straight losing seasons, the Orioles had a minor breakthrough 2022 (an 83-win season that still resulted in a fourth-place finish) before by a major breakthrough in 2023 when they lead the American League with 101 wins for a first-round exit in the playoffs. The question is not whether the Orioles have arrived, but whether they can hold the throne in the notoriously difficult American League East.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson is only the latest in a string of young, talented position players who have come through the Orioles’ system. Catcher Adley Rutschman and left fielder Austin Hays were All-Stars last season, and 20-year-old Jackson Holliday is the top prospect in the sport with a chance to emerge as yet another homegrown star this season. The Orioles added pitching this winter by trading for ace Corbin Burnes and signing veteran closer Craig Kimbrel. Young talent brought the Orioles back. Now, how far can it take them? —Chad Jennings
Jake Ciely's projections
TOP HITTERS
AVG
HR
RBI
3B Gunnar Henderson
.261
26
83
OF Anthony Santander
.249
29
89
OF Cedric Mullins
.248
19
64
TOP PITCHERS
IP
K
ERA
SP Corbin Burnes
191
202
3.66
SP Grayson Rodriguez
165
177
3.75
RP Craig Kimbrel
63
78
3.85
Photo:
Manager Brandon Hyde, 5th season (USA Today)
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
59.5%
🏅 Win division
22.8%
🚩 Win pennant
10.2%
🏆 Win World Series
4.6%
Manager Brandon Hyde, 5th season (USA Today)
Jim Bowden's report card
Lineup
A-
Rotation
B+
Bullpen
B
Defense
B+
Depth
A
Overall
A-
Toronto Blue Jays
86
Expected wins
Analysis
The Blue Jays enter the season with muted expectations. They’re no longer the popular World Series pick around the industry, especially after back-to-back postseason flameouts. In their own division, they’re projected to be behind the Orioles, Yankees and Rays, per FanGraphs. Inside the clubhouse, the Blue Jays remain quietly confident — but in the face of doubters, they have to prove they’re a championship-calibre team with their play.
Pitching should be a strength again, though injuries to starters Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have put the start of their seasons in jeopardy. But whether Toronto can rise to the top of the AL East will hinge on the offence scoring at a more consistent rate than last year. To do that, guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Alejandro Kirk will need to have bounce-back seasons. No one doubts the talent on Toronto’s roster, but it’s time for the Blue Jays to prove they can win when it matters. — Kaitlyn McGrath
Jake Ciely's projections
TOP HITTERS
AVG
HR
RBI
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.286
33
101
SS Bo Bichette
.291
23
84
OF George Springer
.257
23
72
TOP PITCHERS
IP
K
ERA
SP Kevin Gausman
188
216
3.54
RP Jordan Romano
60
70
3.52
SP Chris Bassitt
188
166
4.11
Photo:
Manager John Schneider, 3rd season (USA Today)
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
56.3%
🏅 Win division
20.5%
🚩 Win pennant
9.4%
🏆 Win World Series
4.2%
Manager John Schneider, 3rd season (USA Today)
Jim Bowden's report card
Lineup
B-
Rotation
A-
Bullpen
B+
Defense
A
Depth
C
Overall
B
Tampa Bay Rays
83
Expected wins
Analysis
The Rays always find a way, don’t they?
Last year’s rotation had a chance to be their best ever, yet when four of their top five starters landed on the Injured List, the Rays still managed to win the second-most games in the American League. Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz emerged as All-Stars, Isaac Paredes garnered down-ballot MVP consideration, and Zach Eflin led the league in wins. With a notoriously limited payroll, the Rays have now been to the playoffs five years in a row. Can that continue?
Many of the Rays’ pitchers are still recovering from injury, and star shortstop Wander Franco’s future is uncertain following his arrest amid sexual exploitation and money laundering charges. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is back from a knee injury, and the rest of their lineup is largely intact from last season. Reinforcement should arrive around mid-season as their rotation gets healthy again. Can the Rays weather the storm to find a way until then? — Chad Jennings
Jake Ciely's projections
TOP HITTERS
AVG
HR
RBI
OF Randy Arozarena
.260
24
80
1B Yandy Diaz
.290
18
70
3B Isaac Paredes
.243
25
77
TOP PITCHERS
IP
K
ERA
SP Zach Eflin
171
164
3.61
RP Pete Fairbanks
58
80
2.96
RP Jason Adam
58
70
3.47
Photo:
Manager Kevin Cash, 9th season (USA Today)
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
38.7%
🏅 Win division
10.7%
🚩 Win pennant
5.4%
🏆 Win World Series
2.3%
Manager Kevin Cash, 9th season (USA Today)
Jim Bowden's report card
Lineup
B+
Rotation
B+
Bullpen
A-
Defense
B
Depth
B+
Overall
B+
Boston Red Sox
82
Expected wins
Analysis
The Red Sox have finished last in two consecutive seasons and most predictions have them finishing in the basem*nt of the American League East yet again. Outside of Rafael Devers, the Red Sox are a very young and unproven team. Trevor Story, Tyler O’Neill and Nick Pivetta have been around the league, but certainly have something to prove.
Meanwhile, it’s likely the Red Sox have at least three rookies on their Opening Day roster with right fielder Wilyer Abreu, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and reliever Justin Slaten. That’s not counting second- and third-year players like Triston Casas, Connor Wong and Brayan Bello. Does that give them a spark to remain competitive? Maybe. But nearly every player on this roster will have to perform to the top of their potential. — Jen McCaffrey
Jake Ciely's projections
TOP HITTERS
AVG
HR
RBI
3B Rafael Devers
.282
35
104
1B Triston Casas
.264
30
85
SS Trevor Story
.247
21
70
TOP PITCHERS
IP
K
ERA
RP Kenley Jansen
59
69
4.16
SP Nick Pivetta
163
180
4.43
RP Chris Martin
60
58
3.72
Photo:
Manager Alex Cora, 6th season (Getty Images)
Austin Mock's odds
🎟️ Make postseason
30.9%
🏅 Win division
7.6%
🚩 Win pennant
3.9%
🏆 Win World Series
1.6%
Manager Alex Cora, 6th season (Getty Images)
Jim Bowden's report card
Lineup
C+
Rotation
C+
Bullpen
B-
Defense
C+
Depth
C
Overall
C+
(Top illustration of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson by Dan Goldfarb /The Athletic; Photos by Mark Blinch, Ed Zurga, Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport, Getty Images.)
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