Shane Jackson @Sjacksonmgm Mar 25, 2024, 3:24 PM
- The American League East is +220 to be the division with the most MLB playoff teams in 2024.
- The Yankees are favorites to win the division (+165) after last year's fourth-place finish.
The American League East should continue to be the best division in baseball during the 2024 MLB season.
Four of the five teams project to post a winning record and contend for an MLB playoff odds berth, with the fifth team expected to hover around .500.
But how will a tightly-contested division race shake out this season?
AL East Division Winner Odds
- New York Yankees +180
- Baltimore Orioles +180
- Toronto Blue Jays +400
- Tampa Bay Rays +575
- Boston Red Sox +2000
MLB odds expect the Yankees and Orioles to have the inside track on the division crown, with the Blue Jays and Rays projected to be contenders. Boston is a long shot.
Baltimore won last year’s AL East crown as a +2500 preseason long shot. The Yankees finished fourth despite being +115 preseason favorites.
The preseason favorite hasn’t won this division since New York did so in 2019.
AL East preseason favorites (finish):
- 2023: Yankees +115 (fourth)
- 2022: Blue Jays +180 (second)
- 2021: Yankees -120 (second)
- 2020: Yankees -228 (second)
- 2019: Yankees -130 (first)
AL East Win Totals & Projected Standings
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | BetMGM Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 87.2-74.8 | 92.7-69.3 | 91.5 |
| Rays | 85.2-76.8 | 87.1-74.9 | 85.5 |
| Orioles | 84.2-77.8 | 86.5-75.5 | 90.5 |
| Blue Jays | 83.6-78.4 | 87.9-74.1 | 87.5 |
| Red Sox | 79.1-82.9 | 78.1-83.9 | 77.5 |
The difference between MLB betting markets and model projections in this division is quite interesting. But that’s likely due to how competitive this race projects to be.
The Yankees and Orioles are firm favorites based on win totals and division odds. Projections agree with New York being the early front-runner, but there are some differences after the top choice.
PECOTA believes the Blue Jays are the No. 2 team in this division, while FanGraphs prefers the Rays and their recent reputation. Baltimore slots in at No. 4 at PECOTA, but is third on FanGraphs.
Given the disconnect between baseball odds and projections, monitoring this market all year and taking advantage of discounted prices makes the most sense.
AL East Betting Prediction
Prediction: Red Sox to finish fifth in AL East (-115)
The AL East is so competitive that almost nothing would surprise me this season. I say almost, because I do expect the Red Sox to finish fifth in this division.
Boston has placed fifth in the AL East for the last two years, and currently projects to end up there once again. The Red Sox are the only team in the division with a win total below .500.
PECOTA projects the Red Sox to finish eight games behind the fourth-place Orioles. Their outlook took another hit this spring, when Lucas Giolito underwent season-ending elbow surgery.
The Red Sox aren’t a bad team, and the Netflix documentary will capture that this summer. But they are simply no match for the rest of the AL East.
AL East Team Previews & Predictions
New York Yankees
Juan Soto is in pinstripes, and the Yankees have championship aspirations after last year’s disappointing fourth-place finish in the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles
Fresh off claiming the No. 1 seed in the American League, Baltimore brought in its ace to help make a deep postseason run in 2024.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have made three playoff appearances in the last four years, but don’t have a postseason victory to show for it. Will that change this season?
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have made the postseason for five straight years, but betting markets don’t believe that streak will continue.
Boston Red Sox
After consecutive fifth-place finishes in the AL East, the Red Sox aim to deliver a surprise season for the Netflix documentary.
2024 MLB Division Previews & Predictions
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