The past offers a window to the future.
That’s the theory behind my annual predictions of baseball’s six divisional races. I compare each team’s record during the previous three years against the corresponding marks for every club that played during the era of free agency (which began in 1976), and I use my findings to forecast the upcoming season.
My aim is to find parallels from the past that offer hints about the future — an analysis based purely on history, not on roster composition or offseason acquisitions.
I’ll be unveiling my predictions a division at the time, starting today with the American League East and proceeding through the next five Fridays.
And what about the AL East? My crystal ball sees the Toronto Blue Jays emerging as the divisional champion, a role they haven’t enjoyed since 2015 and (before that) 1993.
My computer formula isolated the 50 clubs from the past that most closely resembled the 2021-2023 Blue Jays, a list topped by the 1979-1981 Brewers. Milwaukee went on to win the American League pennant in 1982 (and nearly take a seven-game World Series), an awfully good sign for the 2024 Blue Jays.
Here’s how Toronto’s 50 closest matches (CMs) fared in their subsequent seasons:
Topped .500: 38
Qualified for the playoffs: 22
Won the league title: 7
Won the World Series: 2
My divisional predictions are based on the four steps of the ladder above. Each of the 50 CMs that topped .500 is worth one point, with the subsequent rungs carrying values of two, three, and four points. Toronto finishes with a total of 111 points.
My AL East forecast for the coming year is determined by the cumulative success of each team’s 50 CMs:
1. Toronto Blue Jays, 111 points
2. Tampa Bay Rays, 105 points
3. Baltimore Orioles, 100 points
4. New York Yankees, 83 points
5. Boston Red Sox, 58 points
My formula matched each current club against the three-year records of 1,288 teams since 1976. (A couple of notes: Expansion teams obviously couldn’t be added to this mix until they played three seasons. And I cut off all comparisons after 2021, so that every club would have at least two years of future data.)
Look below for each team’s resulting forecast, including its 2023 record, the collective performances of its 50 CMs, and specific breakdowns of the five matches that came the closest of all. Pay special attention to the subsequent season for each match; that’s what’s important here. (A brief word about the parenthetical abbreviations: W indicates a World Series winner, L a league champion, and P a playoff qualifier.)
We’ll move on to the AL Central next week.
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1. Toronto Blue Jays
2024 prediction points: 111
2023 record: 89-73 (.549, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 7 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 22 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 38 of 50
CM #1: Brewers (1979-1981) — 1982 record of 95-67 (.586, LP)
CM #2: White Sox (1990-1992) — 1993 record of 94-68 (.580, P)
CM #3: Athletics (2003-2005) — 2006 record of 93-69 (.574, P)
CM #4: Yankees (2019-2021) — 2022 record of 99-63 (.611, P)
CM #5: Angels (2004-2006) — 2007 record of 94-68 (.580, P)
2. Tampa Bay Rays
2024 prediction points: 105
2023 record: 99-63 (.611, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 4 of 50
Won league title in next season: 7 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 18 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 32 of 50
CM #1: Indians (1997-1999) — 2000 record of 90-72 (.556)
CM #2: Braves (2000-2002) — 2003 record of 101-61 (.623, P)
CM #3: Nationals (2014-2016) — 2017 record of 97-65 (.599, P)
CM #4: White Sox (1991-1993) — 1994 record of 67-46 (.593)
CM #5: Red Sox (1975-1977) — 1978 record of 99-64 (.607)
3. Baltimore Orioles
2024 prediction points: 100
2023 record: 101-61 (.623, P)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 20 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 36 of 50
CM #1: Mets (1983-1985) — 1986 record of 108-54 (.667, WLP)
CM #2: Athletics (1979-1981) — 1982 record of 68-94 (.420)
CM #3: Pirates (2011-2013) — 2014 record of 88-74 (.543, P)
CM #4: Angels (1980-1982) — 1983 record of 70-92 (.432)
CM #5: Padres (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 76-86 (.469)
4. New York Yankees
2024 prediction points: 83
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 3 of 50
Won league title in next season: 5 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 14 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 28 of 50
CM #1: Royals (1979-1981) — 1982 record of 90-72 (.556)
CM #2: Dodgers (2008-2010) — 2011 record of 82-79 (.509)
CM #3: Red Sox (1985-1987) — 1988 record of 89-73 (.549, P)
CM #4: Reds (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 76-86 (.469)
CM #5: Giants (1988-1990) — 1991 record of 75-87 (.463)
5. Boston Red Sox
2024 prediction points: 58
2023 record: 78-84 (.481)
Closest matches (CM): 50
Won World Series in next season: 2 of 50
Won league title in next season: 4 of 50
Qualified for playoffs in next season: 9 of 50
Topped .500 in next season: 20 of 50
CM #1: Padres (1989-1991) — 1992 record of 82-80 (.506)
CM #2: Mets (2019-2021) — 2022 record of 101-61 (.623, P)
CM #3: White Sox (1996-1998) — 1999 record of 75-86 (.466)
CM #4: Rays (2013-2015) — 2016 record of 68-94 (.420)
CM #5: Royals (1994-1996) — 1997 record of 67-94 (.416)
