The 2018 MLB regular season ends Sunday, Sept. 30, meaning the postseason is now only five weeks away. There are still plenty of postseason races that have to be decided between now and then.
With that in mind, here is an update on the current American League postseason picture. Here is theSportsLine Projection Systemand here is what the AL postseason field would look like if the season ended today (Click here for the National League playoff picture):
- AL Wild Card Game: Athletics at Yankees
- ALDS: Wild Card Game winner at Red Sox
- ALDS: Indians at Astros
Make sure to check out SportsLine's daily pick sheet for insight about every game.
AL East leader: Red Sox (90-42)
- Games remaining: 30 (17 Home, 13 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage:.509
- SportsLine's playoff odds: 100.0 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds:24.5 percent
The AL East race became pretty interesting past week. The Red Sox have hit a bit of a skid -- their first of the season, really -- losing six times in their past eight games. The Yankees, meanwhile, have won eight times in their past nine games. They chopped 3 1/2 games off their division deficit in the last week. New York remains six games back in the AL East, but it's only five back in the loss column, and these two teams have six head-to-head games remaining, including the final three games of the regular season at Fenway Park.
Of course, trailing by six games with five weeks to go is not ideal, but deficits like this have been erased before. It would not be unprecedented.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 27, 2018A @Yankees 4-game sweep of the Orioles has them 6 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East.
It's the closest they've been since Aug 1 (5.5 GB).
Can they come all the way back?
Through 130 games in 1978, the Yankees trailed the Red Sox by 7 games (won AL East in 1-game playoff) pic.twitter.com/Ws5bShYoav
The Yankees have the easier remaining schedule (.486 remaining opponent's winning percentage) and, within the next week or so, they're going to get Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius back from the disabled list. Aaron Judge and Aroldis Chapman are due back a little later in September. There is still a big hill to climb -- a very big hill -- but suddenly the AL East race doesn't look quite as over as it did last week. The Yankees gained a lot of ground in a little time.
AL Central leader: Indians (74-56)
- Games remaining: 32 (18 Home, 14 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage:.448
- SportsLine's playoff odds:100.0 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds:12.5 percent
It ain't over until it's over, but yeah, the AL Central race is pretty much over. The Indians own a commanding 13-game lead in a division where no other team has a winning record. (The second place Twins are 61-69.) Furthermore, according to remaining opponent's winning percentage, the Indians have baseball's easiest schedule the rest of the season. Crazy things can happen. I'd bet against something crazy happening in the AL Central though. The Indians have this one in the bag.
AL West leader: Astros (80-50)
- Games remaining: 32 (19 Home, 13 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage:.479
- SportsLine's playoff odds:99.1 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds:10.4 percent
The Astros have won five consecutive games -- not coincidentally, Jose Altuve returned from the disabled list five games ago -- to create a little breathing room in the AL West. They're now 1 1/2 games up on the surging Athletics. HowEVA, these two clubs begin a three-game series at Minute Maid Park on Monday night. The tentative pitching matchups:
- Monday: Gerrit Cole vs. Brett Anderson
- Tuesday: Charlie Morton vs. Edwin Jackson
- Wednesday: Dallas Keuchel vs. Trevor Cahill
Believe it or not, this is the last regular season series between the Astros and A's. That's unfortunate. There's no big September meeting to look forward to. Houston has a 1 1/2-game lead and an easier remaining schedule (.504 remaining opponent's winning percentage for the A's), plus, if things really go south, they can be comforted by the fact they close out the regular season with four games against an Orioles team on pace for 116 losses.
The A's have played exceptionally well lately -- they took three of four from the Twins over the weekend and have baseball's best record (45-16) since June 15 -- to climb back into the AL West race. At one point they were 11 1/2 games out. Now the deficit is only 1 1/2 games. There is still a lot of work to be done to win the division, however.
AL wild card leader: Yankees (83-47)
- Games remaining:32 (17 Home, 15 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage:.486
- SportsLine's playoff odds:99.9 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds:8.1 percent
Last week was a good week for the Yankees. They went 5-1 against some bad competition (Marlins and Orioles), including winning four games in three days at Camden Yards over the weekend. Since that ugly four-game sweep at Fenway Park, the Yankees are 15-5. They've already clinched their 26th consecutive winning season, the second longest such streak in history.
Given recent developments, the Yankees surely remain focused on stealing away the AL East title. They're five games back in the loss column with six games with the Red Sox remaining. They control their own destiny. New York looks at the Wild Card Game as a fallback. They're currently 4 1/2 games up on the A's for the top wild-card spot and 9 1/2 games up on the Mariners for a postseason spot in general. Of note: The Yankees and A's play three games in Oakland next week.
AL wild card runner-up: Athletics (79-52)
- Games remaining:31 (16 Home, 15 Away)
- Remaining opponent's winning percentage:.504
- SportsLine's playoff odds:90.0 percent
- SportsLine's World Series odds:2.4 percent
Like the Yankees, the Athletics are no doubt focused on the division title right now, with the Wild Card Game as a fallback. They're 4 1/2 games behind New York for the top wild-card spot and five games up on the Mariners for the second wild-card spot. The A's play three games against the Astros this week and three games against the Yankees next week, giving them a chance to gain ground in the AL West and top wild-card spot races. Otherwise a postseason spot is fairly secure.
Teams on the outside looking in
- Mariners: 74-56 (10.5 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
- Rays: 70-61 (<1.0 percent postseason odds per SportsLine)
I mention the Rays here only because they swept three games from the Red Sox over the weekend -- it was the first time Boston has been swept all season -- and have won eight straight games overall. Tampa is 36-21 since June 20, the third best record in baseball behind the Red Sox (41-16) and A's (41-16). They've been quite successful lately. That said, the Rays remain 19 1/2 games out in the division and nine games back of Oakland for the second wild-card spot. As well as they've played lately, Tampa is a still a long shot postseason contender.
As for the Mariners, they did well to take two of three from the NL West leading Diamondbacks in Arizona over the weekend, but the A's are so hot right now that Seattle still lost a game in the standings this weekend. The Mariners are 5-7 in their past 12 games and that simply is not good enough to keep race with the AL powerhouses. They're currently 6 1/2 games back in the division and five games back of the second wild-card spot. It is worth noting the Mariners and A's have seven head-to-head games remaining this season, including four this coming weekend in Oakland. Seattle has an uphill climb for sure. They're not out of it yet though.
Teams eliminated
- Orioles: 37-94
- Royals: 40-91
It is not yet September and already the Orioles and Royals are playing meaningless games. They've been eliminated from postseason contention. The O's and Royals are now playing to avoid becoming only the third (and fourth) team since 1953 to win fewer than 50 games in a season, joining the expansion 1962 Mets (40-120) and the dreadful 2003 Tigers (43-119). The Orioles have to go 13-18 the rest of the way to reach 50 wins. Given their season to date, that seems daunting.
The White Sox, Tigers, and Rangers are the next teams on tap to be eliminated from postseason contention, though all three clubs will remain alive for at least the rest of this week. Their elimination numbers:
- Rangers: 10 in wild-card race, 9 in division race
- Tigers: 6 in wild-card race, 11 in division race
- White Sox: 5 in wild-card race, 10 in division race
With the AL so top heavy, there might only be six teams still mathematically alive in the postseason races with two weeks to go in the regular season.
