As we get closer to the halfway point of the season, we’ve gathered our American League East writers to take stock of each team and try to determine if anyone can realistically catch the New York Yankees in the division race.
What’s one word that describes the state of your team?
Dan Connolly (Orioles): Rebuilding. Yeah, I know everyone associated with the Orioles — including their fans — is sick of that word. But this is the reality of where this team is in the AL East. The talent has increased in what can be described as Stage 2 of the rebuild. Now, these players are taking their lumps together and learning together in hopes that when Stage 3 comes — whenever that is — they’ll be able to win more frequently.
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Lindsey Adler (Yankees): Sprinting. The Yankees aren’t just building a lead in the AL East, they’re rushing toward it at a breakneck pace. The winning is creating more winning — in the dugout and clubhouse, they are loose and confident. On the field, they are showing resilience and an ability to win games in a variety of ways. They have built a cushion for themselves that will allow them to weather some struggles later in the season if they arise.
Jen McCaffrey (Red Sox): Better. The Red Sox had an awful start to the season with a nonexistent offense and a bullpen that had a hard time saving games, leading to a 10-19 start. But since May 10, the Red Sox have a 26-12 record, second in baseball only to the Yankees. In that stretch, they’ve had one of the best offenses in the league while seeing their starters pitch deeper into games and their bullpen stabilize a bit. They’re back in the wild-card hunt, but still not where they wanted to be at this point in the season. They’re better than the start of the year but have a lot of work to do to keep up with the Rays and Jays.
Kaitlyn McGrath (Blue Jays): Hungry. Missing the postseason by one win last year has left a lasting impression on these Blue Jays. They’ve truly internalized the message “every win matters” because they don’t want to find themselves on the outside looking in come October. It’s made an already highly motivated group even more so. They’ve put themselves in a good spot though, atop the wild-card race even with a slow start from their offence. They’ve started to round into form and while the team is playing much better overall, there is still a sense that their best is yet to come.
Eno Sarris (Rays): Waiting. This team is treading water by being pretty good in most facets of the game, and in most other divisions the Rays would be closer to the lead, so it’s hard to hate on the work they’ve done so far. But a slightly below-average offense needs Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe back now that Randy Arozarena is hitting better again at the plate. A slightly above-average pitching staff needs Shane Baz to find his footing, and perhaps a little better health in the bullpen. Waiting for the health to get right seems to sum it up.
What’s been the biggest surprise (good and bad) for your team thus far?
Connolly: Good: the bullpen. It’s starting to show cracks now. But it’s a collection of castoffs and never-weres that have come together to form a formidable group. It’s led by Jorge Lopez, a former starter who has seized the closer’s role.
Bad: Cedric Mullins. It’s unfair to say a leadoff hitter and good defender who had six homers and 15 stolen bases by mid-June is a disappointment. But Mullins’ OPS is down nearly 200 points from 2021 when he turned in the first 30-30 season in modern Orioles history. It would be so tough to repeat, but the club is hoping he gets closer to last year’s form as the weather heats up.
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Adler: Good: The defense has really taken a huge step forward with the shuffling in the infield. Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s regular play at shortstop allowed them to move Gleyber Torres back to second base. Anthony Rizzo has become a captain at first base. Josh Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu are skilled at third base. Overall, this has helped them play clean games and has helped the pitching staff as well.
Bad: Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks have struggled to contribute this year, particularly Gallo. The Yankees have moved Aaron Judge to center field, Gallo to right, and Hicks to left to try to get the most out of their outfield. Hicks has had a higher rate of good plate appearances with poor outcomes, but Gallo has yet to run into one of the signature hot streaks that have historically buoyed his season, and his style of hitting is too one-dimensional to do much when he’s not getting results.
McCaffrey: Good: Michael Wacha. The veteran righty seemed like he could be a decent addition to the pitching staff when he was signed in the offseason, but even at the time, there were questions if he would pitch out of the bullpen like he did a few times last year for Tampa Bay. No one expected a 2.28 ERA through 11 starts and for him to be one of the team’s best starters in the first half.
Bad: Kiké Hernandez. Hernandez got off to a slow start last year before taking off in June and putting up a ridiculous performance in the postseason. But the cool stretch this year has been different. He’s hitting just .209 with a .613 OPS in 51 games. He’s currently on the injury list with a hip flexor strain but nearing a return so maybe the downtime will help him reset.
McGrath: Good: Everyone knew Alejandro Kirk could hit, but he’s emerged as such a consistent hitter this year, he’s now hitting cleanup and DHing when he’s not catching. He’s probably going to be an All-Star and he’s also impressed with his defence and game-calling behind the plate. With Kirk, as well as the improved performance from Danny Jansen when he’s been healthy and the good start from rookie Gabriel Moreno, there is no team that has better offensive catchers than the Blue Jays.
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Bad: No one was counting on Hyun Jin Ryu to be an ace this season. But the hope was he could be a stabilizing starter at the back of the Blue Jays rotation and at least make his starts every turn through the order. Instead, he just underwent Tommy John surgery and is out for 12 to 18 months, effectively ending his tenure with the Blue Jays. It’s an unfortunate finish, but Ryu’s signing will still go down as the turning point for this era of Jays baseball.
Sarris: Good: the pitching geniuses in Tampa have found another good starter in Jeffrey Springs, and have added Jason Adam to the long list of relievers who have come out of nowhere to shine for the Rays. Generally, they’ve raised the floor, and are just waiting for Baz to raise the ceiling.
Bad: They may have good futures still, but in the present, Taylor Walls, Vidal Brujan and Josh Lowe have struggled this season, and the team could use more offense from the back end of the batting order.
How do you think your team will approach the trade deadline?
Connolly: Sellers. And likely sellers of anyone not named Adley Rutschman if the price is right. Realistically, their most likely trade chips are veterans Trey Mancini, Jordan Lyles and Rougned Odor and solid reliever Dillon Tate. But they could ship away a Mullins, a Lopez or an Anthony Santander if someone breaks down their door.
Adler: The Yankees need to step on the gas this season and not let up. They don’t have many areas of need six weeks before the deadline, but they could attempt to move Gallo and acquire a left fielder or, potentially, some bullpen help. This Yankees team hardly looks like one that needs a big move to put them over the top, but they could find a few places to upgrade.
McCaffrey: At the start of the year, it seemed like the Red Sox might be sellers with questions swirling if Xander Bogaerts would be on the market. At this point, having turned around their season, they’re almost squarely in the buyers’ market unless something goes off the rails in the next month. Their biggest need by far is bullpen help. Last year, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom acquired Hansel Robles and Austin Davis at the trade deadline along with Kyle Schwarber to boost the offense. I could see similar moves being made. A few bullpen arms and maybe a right-handed bat this time. Keep in mind Chris Sale is nearing a return to the team, which could in turn slide Garrett Whitlock back into the bullpen. Reliever Josh Taylor is beginning a rehab assignment this week and should be back in the bullpen soon too. And meanwhile, lefty James Paxton is close to starting a rehab assignment after Tommy John surgery and is a possible late-season addition as well. Nevertheless, pitching is what wins playoff games and the Red Sox still could use more bullpen help.
McGrath: The Blue Jays will be buyers. Their primary need will be pitching, both starters and relievers. The loss of Ryu for the year has meant they’ll likely need to go out and get another starter, at least as a depth option. Meanwhile, their bullpen has been managing fine, but it could really use a bit more firepower for the late innings. A reliever or two who throws hard and gets swing-and-miss would fill a need. Maybe they add a lefty power bat, but that probably takes a backseat to their pitching needs.
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Sarris: The Rays will be cautious buyers on the offensive side, most likely. Designated hitter, second base, and catcher have been their worst positions statistically, but catchers cost a lot and Brandon Lowe should be back eventually. They may not spend as much to get someone at the top of the DH market as they did last year with Nelson Cruz, but adding another bat seems likely.
What needs to happen for your team to fulfill its preseason expectations?
Connolly: Just keep playing inspired baseball. This team’s not particularly good, but it’s not a pushover, either. And that was the hope this preseason: That this club would be fun to watch, amass some young talent and not get blown out all the time. These Orioles have made good so far on that, and if they keep it up, they could avoid 100 losses for the first full season since 2017.
Adler: The Yankees have already obliterated their preseason expectations. They looked like they were settling for some second-best options, but the total level of play has proven to be greater than the expected sum of its parts. The big thing for the Yankees now will be meeting their new expectations.
McCaffrey: Stay consistent. If the offense can keep rolling the way it has the last six weeks and the rotation can keep pitching deeper in games, putting less pressure on the bullpen, the Red Sox should be squarely in the wild-card mix at the end of the year. As noted above, more bullpen help would certainly be a boon for this team, too, and create more stability late in games.
McGrath: The Blue Jays had aspirations to win the division. Within the clubhouse, that goal will remain because professional athletes aren’t settling types. But obviously the Yankees will have to falter significantly in the second half for the Blue Jays to have a realistic chance of catching them. Yet the top wild-card is well within their grasp. To keep it that way, they need to keep winning every series — or nearly every series — they can, especially against division rivals the Rays and Red Sox. This is a team that’s eager to play in October because they know anything can happen once they’re in.
Sarris: They need to raise the floor on the offensive side. There are too many outs in the bottom of the order, and though their pitching can keep opposing offenses down, scoring is still the most important predictor of postseason success. And yeah, this team needs to find more postseason success or it’ll be seen as a step back.
Who is one player on another team in the division who has impressed you?
Connolly: Alek Manoah. Last June, I watched the Orioles hit four home runs off the rookie in four innings. This June, I watched him give up one hit in six innings. Maybe the Orioles offense isn’t the greatest barometer, but this guy’s stuff is plain nasty, and now it seems like he knows how to pitch. He’s gotta be a contender in the early Cy Young Award race.
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Adler: The Orioles bullpen. The path to a .500 season still seems difficult for this Orioles squad to traverse, but there have been clear improvements in the quality of pitching for Baltimore. It looks like the first indication the Orioles could stop being the punching bag/stat-padding squad of the AL East in the next few years.
McCaffrey: Nestor Cortes. The Yankees lefty is having a terrific year in their rotation and has put on an impressive display with a 1.94 ERA and 27 percent strikeout rate. He had a good year last year in New York but has taken another step forward this season, making their rotation even stronger.
McGrath: I might cheat and choose the entire Orioles bullpen. It was only last September that I watched the Blue Jays put up 44 runs in the span of three games — two of which only went seven innings — against the Orioles. But this year they have found the elusive secret sauce that flows freely in Tampa that turns middling arms into lights-out relievers. As such, they’re parading out a handful of relievers who have an ERA below 2.00. Believe it or not, the Orioles are tough to beat if they have a lead late in games.
Sarris: Gleyber Torres. The Yankees infielder has been in the league five years and seems to have been a different player every year. This year’s version isn’t quite the very best we’ve seen, but his return to hitting the ball hard while not striking out has been remarkable given the amount of negative feedback he seems to get from his fanbase. Kudos to him for finding it again, and there might even be another level for him if he can fold back his patience into the current approach.
Who is going to win the division and why?
Connolly: Yankees. I picked the Blue Jays in March, and I still really like them. I’ll stick with them as my World Series winner. But these Yankees are going to be tough to catch in the division. They are a complete club and could add more talent at the deadline.
Adler: Yankees. The division isn’t over just yet, but New York would have to suffer a major collapse later in the season to give up their lead. Their recent play against the Rays and Blue Jays has only made their likelihood of winning the division handily seem more likely.
McCaffrey: Yankees. I think they already have the division locked up unless they suffer some major injuries in the second half. Even if they played .500 the rest of the season, they’d still finish with about 97 wins. They’re on such a roll right now it’s reminiscent of the 2018 Red Sox, who won 108 games and seemed unstoppable.
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McGrath: Yankees. I have my doubts they can keep up their current pace, but they’ve built enough of a cushion that they’ll still be tough to catch. People have mentioned their soft schedule to begin the season, which helped them race out to this 120-win pace, but, as we’ve seen over the last week when they won series against the Rays and Blue Jays, they’re beating good teams just the same now, too.
Sarris: Yankees. The older Yankees could still suffer some injuries and fall back as they have in the past, but they’ve really improved their pitching depth and seem fine there even if someone gets hurt. If things get dire that way on the offensive side, they have the ability to go get a replacement. It’s hard to see how the Blue Jays catch them unless they get white-hot.
(Top photo: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
