David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterSep 1, 2023, 11:37 AM
Baseball's best playoff race kicked into high gear in July -- and it all started with "the incident."
On July 19, the Seattle Mariners were 47-48 and in fourth place in the American League West -- 10 games behind the division-leading Texas Rangers. According to FanGraphs, their odds of winning the division stood at 2.5%.
The Mariners had lost 6-3 at home to the Minnesota Twins that night -- a game it looked like they'd win. The Twins scored the go-ahead run in the eighth inning on a passed ball with two outs and then added two more on a home run in the top of the ninth. In the bottom of that inning, Jarred Kelenic struck out looking with two runners on base after a nine-pitch at-bat against Jhoan Duran that included fouling off fastballs of 103 and 104 mph. He returned to the dugout, kicked the Gatorade cooler in frustration and broke his left foot.
Kelenic met with reporters the next day in the Mariners' dugout, his eyes red, pausing to wipe away the tears streaming down his face -- tears that appeared to symbolize a Mariners season that began with big dreams but was starting to slip away.
It feels like an unlikely demarcation event and no doubt it's coincidental, but the Mariners took off after that, going 29-9 since. George Kirby kicked it off later that day by pitching seven scoreless innings in a 5-0 win over the Twins. Seattle had two separate eight-game winning streaks in August as Julio Rodriguez flipped the ignition key and turned on his booster rockets for a historic five four-hit games in August. A friend now sends me regular texts with the Mariners' updated win-loss record since "the incident," as they've climbed over the Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the wild-card race and into the division race.
On Sunday, the Mariners beat the Kansas City Royals while the Cleveland Guardians beat the Rangers in 13 innings, culminating an improbable 10-game stretch in which the Mariners went 9-1 while the Rangers went 1-9. The Mariners, incredibly, moved into sole possession of first place in the division, the latest date they've been in first since 2001.
As we kick off the final month of the regular season, it's no surprise that we're ranking the AL West race as the most exciting playoff race to watch in September, a three-team battle between the Mariners, Rangers and Houston Astros, with the Mariners hoping to join a very short list of teams that overcame a 10-game deficit in the second half to win a division title. Meanwhile, the National League wild-card race is a multiteam mêlée, the AL East could see two teams win 100 games, and the AL wild-card race has the Blue Jays breathing down the necks of the AL West teams. There will be plenty of out-of-town scoreboard watching in September.
Let's rank the must-see factors for all eight playoff races.
1. American League West
One aspect that makes this race so intriguing are the subplots of the three teams involved:
The Mariners are the only current franchise never to play in a World Series.
The Rangers have never won a World Series.
The Astros are trying to become the first repeat World Series champion in more than 20 years.
Yes, all three teams could still end up in the postseason, but your chances of reaching the World Series are dramatically improved if you can avoid the best-of-three wild-card series. Winning the division is still important. And with the Blue Jays close behind, there is no choice but to push as hard as possible to finish in first. One win could be the difference between winning a division or missing the playoffs altogether.
The Mariners have the momentum. The Astros know how to win. The Rangers are simply trying to avoid a collapse.
Here's the history the Mariners are trying to make. Since the division era began in 1969, only six teams have rallied from a 10-game deficit after the All-Star break to win a division: the '69 Mets, '73 Mets, '78 Yankees, '93 Braves, '95 Mariners and '06 Twins. Since the six-division wild-card era began in 1995, only those '95 Mariners and '06 Twins and the 2012 Oakland Athletics have won a division title after trailing by at least 10 games at any point in July.
How did Mariners make up such a large deficit in just over a month? Is it too easy to just say, "Julio got hot"? It's not that simple, of course, because one player doesn't carry a team, but as Julio scuffled into late July, so had the rest of the offense. Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez and Ty France -- the meat of the batting order -- were all hitting worse than a year ago. Check out their OPS totals from last year, through July 19 and since July 19:
Rodriguez: .853/.712/1.120
Suarez: .791/.718/.730
Raleigh: .774/.703/.932
Hernandez: .807/.712/.894
France: .774/.692/.782
Throw in J.P. Crawford (.933 OPS since July 19), Dylan Moore (1.024 OPS) and trade acquisition Josh Rojas (.783 OPS and a big improvement over Kolten Wong at second base) and the Mariners have the second-best OPS in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves over this period. Meanwhile, the starters have been excellent -- they went 24 games without a loss until emergency fill-in Luke Weaver lost on Tuesday -- and the bullpen has one of the best ERAs in the majors going back to the beginning of July. That will work.
But, yeah, Julio also got hot. He became the first player to record 17 hits over four games. He became the first player since 1900 with five four-hit games in a 10-game stretch. He drove in 30 runs in August, and chipped in 11 stolen bases and his usual excellent defense. The Mariners have to hope the pinched nerve in his left foot that caused him to miss two games against the A's won't slow him.
The Rangers actually began August with an eight-game winning streak and 12 victories in 14 games before suddenly dropping eight in a row. We can call that a blip, but they are just 41-37 since the beginning of June. They were able to weather Jacob deGrom's season-ending injury, but they've missed Nathan Eovaldi in the rotation, even though trade acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have pitched well. They've had a couple of issues late in the game and Aroldis Chapman has replaced Will Smith as closer. The biggest difference from the end of May, when they were a ridiculous plus-131 in run differential? Hitting with runners in scoring position:
April: .344
May: .323
June: .254
July: .257
August: .211
Those April and May numbers weren't going to be sustainable, but they can expect to do better in September than they did in August. Eovaldi should rejoin the rotation next week -- they had originally hoped for a return this week against the New York Mets, but he experienced side tightness following a bullpen session -- and the Rangers have to feel good about their chances if he makes it back.
As for the defending champs, bet against them at your own peril. The Astros have won five of the past six AL West titles, missing only the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. They also have the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams, including nine games against the Royals and A's and one series left against both the Rangers and Mariners. Seattle, meanwhile, just got through a soft part of the schedule and is starting a 10-game trip against the Mets, Cincinnati Reds and Tampa Bay Rays. The Mariners also host the Dodgers and then finish with seven against the Rangers and three against the Astros for their final 10 games.
2. National League wild card
This is what the modern world gives us. Maybe it's not your thing and, honestly, I won't argue if you're anti-wild card, or don't work up a sweat over the wild-card standings. Unless your team is involved, then you certainly care -- a lot. Yes, the Braves and Dodgers are the class of the NL, but the Braves and Dodgers (and Mets) were the class of the NL last year and the Philadelphia Phillies, the No. 6 seed, ended up reaching the World Series. So, just get in on the wild card.
What makes this particular race so much fun is not just that six teams are still in it for three spots -- although the Phillies are starting to pull away thanks to a barrage of home runs from Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber and the Miami Marlins are on a slow fade -- but that five of them weren't really expected to be here (the Phillies being the lone exception). The San Francisco Giants finished .500 last year, but none of the four other teams -- the Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks, Reds or Marlins -- won more than 74 games in 2022. This was supposed to be the Mets, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals fighting for positioning.
The Reds and Marlins are the underdogs here and both have sort of hit the wall in August -- the Reds were 9-17 and the Marlins 10-17. Not counting 2020, when both made the expanded playoffs in the pandemic-shortened season, it's been a long time since either made the postseason: the Reds in 2013, the Marlins way back in 2003.
Can any of these teams do damage in the postseason? Sure, it's easy to envision the Phillies making a run just like in 2022. The Cubs can score runs and have a Cy Young contender in Justin Steele and a bullpen that has been better than expected. The Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, similar to how the Phillies had Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola last season. Even the Marlins have a rotation that has the potential to dominate in October (although not the offense to back it up). The Reds? Yeah, hard to see that one, but it would be nice to see Joey Votto one last time in the postseason.
3. American League East
The Rays got off to that 13-0 start and were 29-7 after beating the Baltimore Orioles on May 8. They looked like they would run away with the division title -- except the Orioles quietly had an amazing start as well and were 22-15. And when Baltimore beat the Rays in the final two games of that early May series, Tampa Bay's lead was just 4.5 games. So when the Rays finally faltered in July (going 8-16), the Orioles were ready to pounce and have now held sole possession of first place since July 22 -- although never by more than three games.
Both teams are all but assured playoff spots, but winning the division is still paramount. You get to avoid the best-of-three wild-card series. You get to rest your starters and have them lined up for the division series. Winning the division doesn't guarantee anything, as we saw with the Giants and Dodgers in 2021 -- they pushed hard to the end of the season and then had to play each other in the NLDS. The same scenario is likely to apply to the AL East. The Orioles and Rays might both win 100 games and finish with the top two records in the AL, but the runner-up gets the No. 4 seed, which could set up a showdown in the ALDS. The two teams have one series left, a four-game series in Baltimore starting Sept. 14.
4. American League wild card
At the start of August, the Astros, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Yankees and Mariners were all bunched up within 4.5 games of each other for the final two wild-card spots, but we've had a large separation since, with the Mariners surging and the Angels and Yankees collapsing. The Red Sox haven't fallen apart, but they haven't played well enough in August. They've lost ground and their odds of making the playoffs have dipped under 10%.
That leaves the Blue Jays trying to chase down one of the AL West teams. What to make of Toronto? This is Year 5 of the Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Bo Bichette era and what do they have to show for it? Not much. They made the postseason in 2020 thanks to the expanded playoffs but then missed it by one game in 2021. They won a wild-card spot in 2022 but failed to take advantage of it. They've yet to win a playoff game with Vladdy Jr. and Bichette, going 0-4. They've made plenty of significant additions around their two young stars -- signing George Springer and Kevin Gausman as free agents, trading for Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman -- and yet, they've been surpassed by the Orioles as the team of the present (and future) in the division.
They're hardly out of this, however: Their next nine games are against the Colorado Rockies, A's and Royals, and that's a great opportunity for a 7-2 or 8-1 run. They also have two series against the slumping Yankees. With Bichette back on the injured list and Chapman joining him, it won't be easy in the short term, so it's definitely time for Guerrero to step up and put the team on his back.
5. National League Central
On Monday, the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Cubs 6-2 for their ninth straight victory, increasing their division lead to five games. Their odds of winning the division had climbed to 90% via FanGraphs -- five games in baseball with 31 to play is a big mountain. On Tuesday, however, the Cubs scored in the first inning off Corbin Burnes, and Steele made it hold, pitching six innings in a 1-0 victory to improve to 15-3 and perhaps climb to the front of the Cy Young race as well. On Wednesday, the Cubs won 3-2 on Cody Bellinger's go-ahead infield single in the bottom of the eighth. The door is open.
6. American League Central
The worst division of all time? Probably -- although the four teams in the AL West in 1994 all finished under .500. The Rangers were 52-62 when the strike ended the season prematurely, saving us from a sub-.500 division winner. The Twins should at least manage to post a winning record, but their inability to run away with the division is mildly frustrating. Indeed, Cleveland's extra-inning win on Wednesday after tying the score in the ninth off Jhoan Duran was a big two-game swing that keeps slim hopes alive for the Guardians. They play the Twins in a three-game series starting Monday, and if the Guardians can somehow sweep that series, the race will get a lot more interesting.
7. National League East
Four days into the season, the Braves were 2-1 and a half-game behind the Mets, who had started 3-1. That was the only day all season the Braves haven't been in first place. They will head into October as winners of their sixth straight division title and the World Series favorite.
8. National League West
This was supposed to be a year that the Dodgers took a small step back, maybe even struggled to make the playoffs, as they clearly had their eyes on pursuing Shohei Ohtani in the offseason so refrained from making any major additions to the 2023 roster (while losing Trea Turner in free agency). And in the first half, that appeared to be the case: They were in second place much of June and entered the All-Star break tied with the Diamondbacks, with the Giants close behind. The rotation has kind of been a mess -- a mess for them, that is -- all season. Julio Urias hasn't pitched as well as the past two seasons, Dustin May got hurt, Noah Syndergaard didn't work out, Ryan Pepiot was injured most of the season, Michael Grove was ineffective, Tony Gonsolin is out for the season. But through all of that, the offense kept them close to the top. Then August kicked in, and they went 23-5 -- Mookie Betts had a month for the ages. The Dodgers are running away with the division and perhaps are on their way to another 100-win season.
